Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part I: A Review of Metrics and Adjoint Methods

Irrigation management consists of many components. In this work we review and recommend rainfall forecast performance metrics and adjoint methodologies for the use of predictive weather data within the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE estimates crop water uses to optimize irrigation scheduling. WISE and its components, input requirements, and related software design issues are discussed. The use of predictive weather allows WISE to consider economic opportunity‐costs of decisions to defer water application if rainfall is forecast. These capabilities require an assessment of the system uncertainties and use of weather prediction performance probabilities. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are reviewed. In addition, model data assimilation methods and adjoint sensitivity concepts are introduced. These assimilation methods make use of observational uncertainties and can link performance metrics to space and time considerations. We conclude with implementation guidance, summaries of available data sources, and recommend a novel adjoint method to address the complex physical linkages and model sensitivities between space and time within the irrigation scheduling physics as a function of soil depth. Such tool improvements can then be used to improve water management decision performance to better conserve and utilize limited water resources for productive use. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

What is a static head measurement? Evaluating structural error and implications for regional groundwater modeling

Most groundwater modelers avoid using static heads measured from active production wells because they can introduce a bias into model calibration. However, in the deep confined Cambrian-Ordovician Sandstone Aquifer System in the Central Midcontinent of North America, dedicated observation wells are sparse and remote from areas of most concentrated pumping. As a result, in areas where drawdown is the greatest and modeling is most needed, only static heads from production wells are available for calibration. This paper evaluates two leading sources of discrepancies in using production well data, spatial and temporal structural error (S.E.). A simple Theis solution is used to evaluate the potential magnitude of spatial S.E. when calibrating a regional MODFLOW model with coarse cell resolution. Despite theoretical analyses indicating that spatial S.E. could be significant, statistical analysis of the model results suggests that temporal S.E. is dominant. Long (ranging over decades) or frequent (monthly) head datasets are key in understanding temporal S.E., to better capture water-level variability. In this study, the range in static head observations impacted estimates of the remaining time a well could extract water from the aquifer by 0.1 to 16.0 years. This uncertainty in future water supply is highly relevant to stakeholders and must be assessed in hydrographs depicting risk.     

Assessment of perceived injury risks and priorities among truck drivers and trucking companies in Washington State

Problem

The trucking industry experiences one of the highest work-related injury rates. Little work has been conducted previously in the United States to assess the hazards, needs, and injury prevention priorities in trucking. Method: Two separate industry-wide surveys of 359 trucking companies and 397 commercial truck drivers were conducted in Washington State. Results: Trucking companies and drivers both ranked musculoskeletal and slip, trip, fall injuries as the top two priorities. Controlling heavy lifting, using appropriate equipment, and addressing slippery surfaces were frequently listed as solutions. There appears to be a gap in safety climate perception between workers and employers. However, driver and company priorities agreed with industry workers' compensation claims. There is room for safety program management improvement in the industry. The study findings detail opportunities for prioritizing and reducing injuries. Impact on Industry: This information can be used to focus and design interventions for the prevention of work-related injuries while improving industry competitiveness.     

Diagnosis and significance of cystic hygroma in the first trimester

Thirty cases of cervical cystic hygroma were diagnosed in the first trimester of pregnancy. Karyotype analysis was available in 29 (97 per cent). Fifteen (52 per cent) had a chromosomal abnormality. The ultrasound appearance was described as posterior cervical, lateral cervical, or cervical hygroma with hydrops. Of the 14 euploid embryos, six were electively aborted, two are undelivered, and six have been delivered as phenotypically normal infants. In cases in which the chromosomes were normal and the pregnancy continued, all lesions resolved by 18 weeks.     

Inhibition of photosynthesis by ultraviolet radiation as a function of dose and dosage rate: Results for a marine diatom

The effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton are usually described as a function of dose (J m^–2, weighted appropriately). Experiments conducted in 1988 and 1989 on a marine diatom,Thalassiosira pseudonana (Clone 3H), demonstrate that during lightlimited photosynthesis in visible radiation, the inhibition of photosynthesis by supplemental ultraviolet radiation (principally UV-B: 280 to 320 nm) is a function of irradiance (W m^–2) as well as of dose: for equal doses of UV-B, a relatively short exposure to high UV-B irradiance is more damaging to photosynthesis than a longer exposure to lower irradiance. In fact, photoinhibition by UV-B is well described as a monotonic, nonlinear function of irradiance for time scales of 0.5 to 4 h. A nitrate-limited culture was about nine times more sensitive to UV-B than was a nutrient-replete culture, but the kinetics of photoinhibition were similar. These results have some bearing on efforts to describe the effects of ultraviolet radiation on marine primary productivity. Action spectra of photoinhibition by UV can be constructed, but they should only be used to describe photoinhibition for specified time scales. Vertical profiles of relative photoinhibition must be interpreted cautiously because photoinhibition by UV-B is likely to be a function of incubation time and results must therefore be interpreted in the context of vertical mixing.     

硒酸钠和亚硒酸钠对长春花细胞悬浮生长的影响

研究了硒化合物对长春花(C.roseus)细胞悬浮生长的影响.在pH5.5培养介质中,当Se(Ⅵ)>0.5ppm或Se(Ⅳ)>0.6ppm时,将抑制C.roseus细胞悬浮生长,其致死浓度分别是100ppm Se(Ⅵ)和2.0ppm Se(Ⅳ).C.roseus对硒化合物有效强的富集作用.硒化合物的毒性和培养介质的pH值有关.在本试验条件下,硒酸钠和亚硒酸钠对Hg²⁺无拮抗作用.     

Residential Radon in U.S. Counties V Lung Cancer in Women Who Predominantly Never Smoked

Previous studies have found that mean-residential-radon (Rn) levels for U.S. counties are negatively associated with age-adjusted county rates of lung-cancer mortality (LCM), after adjustments for potentially confounding factors. Those results may be due to (a) confounding unaddressable by any county-level (ecological) study design, or (b) county-level factors such as Rn/smoking or age/radon correlations or exposure misclassifications from the use of disparate data sources. Possibilities (b) were addressed by comparing age-specific LCM rates for white women in 2821 U.S. counties who died in 1950–54 at age 40+ (11% of whom ever smoked), or at age 60+ (% of whom ever smoked), to county Rn levels newly estimated from U.S. Rn, climatic and geological-survey data. Significant negative LCM v Rn trends were found for both age groups, after adjusting for age and subsets of 21 county-level socioeconomic, climatic and other factors. Negative trends were largest for counties with 100 Bq m^–3 Rn (p 0.00087; 420 analyses). Adjusted relative risk (RR_adj) for LCM was significantly elevated (1 < [95% conf. limits on RR_adj] 1.46) in 43 of 210 analyses comparing LCM rates in counties with > 150 Bq m^–3 v 65–100 Bq m^–3 Rn, most involving adjustment for climate- and education-related factors likely to have influenced exposure to indoor air contaminants such as Rn and cigarette smoke. Though inconclusive due to potential ecological-fallacy-related confounding that could not be controlled, results from this ecological study are most consistent with a U-shaped dose-response relationship between 1950–54 LCM risk and U.S. residential radon in white women who predominantly never smoked.     

A laboratory investigation of the effectiveness of various skin and surface decontaminants for aliphatic polyisocyanates

Isocyanates may cause contact dermatitis and respiratory sensitization leading to asthma. Dermal exposure to aliphatic isocyanates in auto body shops is very common. However, little is known about the effectiveness of available commercial products used for decontaminating aliphatic polyisocyanates. This experimental study evaluated the decontamination effectiveness of aliphatic polyisocyanates for several skin and surface decontaminants available for use in the auto body industry. The efficiency of two major decontamination mechanisms, namely (i) consumption of free isocyanate groups via chemical reactions with active hydrogen components of the decontaminant and (ii) physical removal processes such as dissolution were studied separately for each decontaminant. Considerable differences were observed among surface decontaminants in their rate of isocyanate consumption, of which those containing free amine groups performed the best. Overall, Pine-Sol(R) MEA containing monoethanolamine was the most efficient surface decontaminant, operating primarily via chemical reaction with the isocyanate group. Polypropylene glycol (PPG) had the highest physical removal efficiency and the lowest reaction rate with isocyanates. All tested skin decontaminants performed similarly, accomplishing decontamination primarily via physical processes and removing 70-80% of isocyanates in one wiping. Limitations of these skin decontaminants are discussed and alternatives presented. In vitro testing using animal skins and in vivo testing with field workers are being conducted to further assess the efficiency and identify related determinants.     

Biological weighting of ultraviolet (280–400 nm) induced mortality in marine zooplankton and fish. II. Calanus finmarchicus (Copepoda) eggs

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus Gunnerus is a key component of the planktonic food web in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. In this region, productivity-determining biophysical interactions occur in the upper 0 to 30 m of the water column. The eggs and nauplii of C. finmarchicus are found in this layer. Measurements of the diffuse attenuation coefficients for solar ultraviolet-B radiation (280 to 320 nm, UV-B) at various locations in this region indicated maximum 10% depths (the depth to which 10% of the surface energy penetrates) of 3 to 4 m at a wavelength of 310 nm. This represents a significant percentage of the summer mixed-layer water column: organisms residing in this layer are exposed to UV-B radiation. Laboratory experiments using a Xenon-arc-lamp based solar simulator revealed that C. finmarchicus embryos exposed to UV-B exhibited high wavelength-dependent mortality. The strongest effects occurred under exposures to wavelengths below 312 nm. A significant percentage of nauplii hatched from eggs exposed to these wavelengths exhibited malformations indicative of errors in pattern formation during embryogenesis. At the shorter wavelengths (<305 nm), UV-B-induced mortality was strongly dependent on cumulative exposure. The biological weighting function (BWF) derived for UV-B-induced mortality in C. finmarchicus eggs is similar to that reported for naked DNA. This suggests that the UV-B-induced mortality effect on C. finmarchicus embryos is a direct result of DNA damage. There was no evidence of a detrimental effect of ultraviolet-A radiation (320 to 400 nm). Calculations based upon the BWF indicate that, under current noon surface irradiance, 50% of C. finmarchicus eggs located at or very near (within 10 cm) the ocean surface will be dead after 2.5 h of exposure. Under solar spectral irradiance simulating a 20% decrease in ozone layer thickness, this time drops to 2.2 h. These are first-order estimates based upon irradiance taken at a time of day during which the values would be maximal. Nonetheless, they illustrate the relative changes in UV-B effects that will result from ozone layer depletions expected over the coming decades. It is also important to point out that variability in cloud cover, water quality, and vertical distribution and displacement within the mixed layer, can all have a greater effect on the flux of UV-B radiation to which C. finmarchicus eggs are exposed than will ozone layer depletion at these latitudes. Received: 2 March 1998 / Accepted: 18 December 1998